What does Soleimani’s death mean ?

• 

On 3rd January, a US drone strike killed one of the most beloved personality of Iran, its own Qasem Soleimani. He was killed in a targeted airstrike carried out by the US army on Popular Mobilization Front’s (PMF) convoy which carried Soleimani and few of his comrades in Baghdad, Iraq.

WHO WAS SOLEIMANI?

Qasem Soleimani was a Major General of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and was also the chief of external operation of the Quds Force for the Guards (the wing responsible for special operations); unlike someone his stature he was a loved personality with an untainted image.

In other words one may say, he was the epitome of a hero for Iran. He had been in charge of conducting the Quds operations in Syrian civil war, bolstering the Assad government, aiding Hezobollahs in Lebanon in 2012, fighting Islamic State (IS) in the regions of Iraq and Afghanistan (at certain instances alongside the US).

General Qassem Soleimani has killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more…but got caught! He was directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people, including the recent large number….

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2020

But for the West, he is responsible for exporting Iran’s Islamic revolution, supporting terrorists, subverting pro-Western governments, planning the attack on US embassy in Baghdad and waging Iran’s foreign wars.

REPERCUSSIONS

The announcement of Soleimani’s death had certain repercussions some immediate and some to watch in future, these include-

• Global prices of crude oil increasing by 4% within hours of announcement.
• An obvious no to renegotiation of Iran Nuclear Deal also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which could also result in rise in Iranian nuclear ambitions in place of the desired halt.
• Turmoil in the Gulf region which means more clashes.
• Conflicts in regions like Syria converting into a proxy-war.
• Embargos on trade to and from US in Iran.
• Presence of American diplomats in the region becoming precarious.

WHAT IS TRUMP’S MOTIVE?

Purportedly, Trump is using this to gain some popularity after the stain of impeachment proceedings. This is being done to fix his goodwill before the presedential elections in 2020 as he seeks a second term. In order to achieve this he has actively been adressing the air raid as a move “to stop a war … not to start a war”.

Ironically back in 2011, Donald Trump accused Obama that in order to get re-elected he would start a war with Iran because “he has no ability to negotitate and he is weak and ineffective.” But here we are in 2020 when Trump has to contradict his own prophecy.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INDIA?

With two of major powers of their respective blocks clashing even a hint at minor alignment towards either could result into India losing the other block, at the ground level each of these countries tremendously affect India in the economic and political sphere at both global and domestic levels.

So, the most practical approach for India would be to intially try and prevent hostilities that could foreseeably result into a war and if things escalate stick to the policy of Non-Alignment to ensure complete protection of its interests.

With Esmail Ghaani succeeding the slain major general, determined vows made by Iranian government, United Nations condenming action by US and the fact that assassination of Soleimani does not eliminate the threat of terrorism in the region; the given agenda becomes the next event to come close to the outbreak of World War 3 after the Cuban missle crisis of 1962.